Helediron Blog feature: Statistics

ESO Master Writ Drop Rates 2018-03

Half-way results from following master writs after Dragon Bones update.

A newer post replaces this

No significant change in drop rates:

These numbers come from making master writs with 28 crafters one month. That is equivalent of doing them on one crafters over two years, totalling over 5000 writs. It is close to being statistically valid. My rule of thumb is that there should be at least 100 drops. Now there are about 80 of each gear master writs dropped.

Validity of voucher drops is far from valid. They are just too much of doule-RNG on top of each. My plan is to continue at least another month to see, if that tames the voucher numbers enough.

  • Totals show totals from the whole period.
  • Avg/month shows how much master writs and vouchers one crafter can expect in one month.
  • Avg/charday shows probability of getting each master writ and daily averages of vouchers earned.

The charts show daily drops of writs and vouchers. It shows how much there can be variation. Master writs actually drop reliably. It’s the amount of vouchers received that jumps wildly up and down.

 Picking out some details:

  • A crafter doing all six saily writs have 71% chance to get some master writ in a day.
  • A crafter gets a blacksmith master writs once per ten days.
  • Provisioning is so wothless. Alchemy and enchant not much better either, although they are cheap to do.
  • I am pointing the depression in vouchers around time 5. For one crafter that is two months gettting nearly nothing and five months of bad time. That was period of 800 writs getting next to nothing. RNG can be that bad.

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